A 4C mortality score based dichotomic rule supports Emergency Department discharge of COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: For COVID-19 patients evaluated in the Emergency Department (ED), decision on hospital admission vs home discharge is challenging. The 4C mortality score (4CMS) is a prognostication tool integrating key demographic/clinical/biochemical data validated for COVID-19 inpatients. We sought to derive and validate a dichotomic rule based on 4CMS identifying patients with mild outcomes, suitable for safe ED discharge. METHODS: Derivation was performed in a prospective cohort of ED patients with suspected COVID-19 from two centers (April 2020). Validation was pursued in a prospective multicenter cohort of ED patients with confirmed COVID-19 from 6 centers (October 2020 to January 2021). Chest x-ray (CXR) images were independently scored. The primary composite outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality or hospital admission. Secondary outcomes were ED re-visit, oxygen therapy and ventilation. RESULTS: In a derivation cohort of 838 ED patients with suspected COVID-19, 4CMS ≤8 was associated with low outpatient mortality (0.4%) and was thus selected as a feasible discharge rule. In a validation cohort of 521 COVID-19 outpatients, the mean age was 51±17 years; 97 (18.6%) patients had ≥1 CXR infiltrate. The 4CMS had an AUC of 0.82 for the primary outcome and 0.93 for mortality, outperforming other scores (CURB-65, qCSI, qSOFA, NEWS) and CXR. In 474 (91%) patients with 4CMS≤8, the mortality rate was 0.2% and the hospital admission rate was 6.8%, versus 12.8% and 36.2% for 4CMS≥9 (P<0.001). CXR did not provide additional discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 outpatients with 4CMS≤8 have mild outcomes and can be safely discharged from the ED. [NCT0462918].

Lung Ultrasound Improves Outcome Prediction over Clinical Judgment in COVID-19 Patients Evaluated in the Emergency Department.

In the Emergency Department (ED), the decision to hospitalize or discharge COVID-19 patients is challenging. We assessed the utility of lung ultrasound (LUS), alone or in association with a clinical rule/score. This was a multicenter observational prospective study involving six EDs (NCT046291831). From October 2020 to January 2021, COVID-19 outpatients discharged from the ED based on clinical judgment were subjected to LUS and followed-up at 30 days. The primary clinical outcome was a composite of hospitalization or death. Within 393 COVID-19 patients, 35 (8.9%) reached the primary outcome. For outcome prognostication, LUS had a C-index of 0.76 (95%CI 0.68-0.84) and showed good performance and calibration. LUS-based classification provided significant differences in Kaplan-Meier curves, with a positive LUS leading to a hazard ratio of 4.33 (95%CI 1.95-9.61) for the primary outcome. The sensitivity and specificity of LUS for primary outcome occurrence were 74.3% (95%CI 59.8-88.8) and 74% (95%CI 69.5-78.6), respectively. The integration of LUS with a clinical score further increased sensitivity. In patients with a negative LUS, the primary outcome occurred in nine (3.3%) patients (p < 0.001 vs. unselected). The efficiency for rule-out was 69.7%. In unvaccinated ED patients with COVID-19, LUS improves prognostic stratification over clinical judgment alone and may support standardized disposition decisions.

Lung Ultrasonography for the Diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 Pneumonia in the Emergency Department.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Accurate diagnostic testing to identify severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is critical. Although highly specific, SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) has been shown in clinical practice to be affected by a noninsignificant proportion of false-negative results. This study seeks to explore whether the integration of lung ultrasonography with clinical evaluation is associated with increased sensitivity for the diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 pneumonia, and therefore may facilitate the identification of false-negative SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR results. METHODS: This prospective cohort study enrolled consecutive adult patients with symptoms potentially related to SARS-CoV-2 infection who were admitted to the emergency department (ED) of an Italian academic hospital. Immediately after the initial assessment, a lung ultrasonographic evaluation was performed and the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection, based on both clinical and lung ultrasonographic findings ("integrated" assessment), was recorded. RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2 detection was subsequently performed. RESULTS: We enrolled 228 patients; 107 (46.9%) had SARS-CoV-2 infection. Sensitivity and negative predictive value of the clinical-lung ultrasonographic integrated assessment were higher than first RT-PCR result (94.4% [95% confidence interval {CI} 88.2% to 97.9%] versus 80.4% [95% CI 71.6% to 87.4%] and 95% [95% CI 89.5% to 98.2%] versus 85.2% [95% CI 78.3% to 90.6%], respectively). Among the 142 patients who initially had negative RT-PCR results, 21 tested positive at a subsequent molecular test performed within 72 hours. All these false-negative cases were correctly identified by the integrated assessment. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that, in patients presenting to the ED with symptoms commonly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, the integration of lung ultrasonography with clinical evaluation has high sensitivity and specificity for coronavirus disease 2019 pneumonia and it may help to identify false-negative results occurring with RT-PCR.